Survey Favours Abbati Ahead Of APC Adamawa Central Senatorial Primaries
A recent public opinion survey conducted by Greenfield Analytics Consortium has identified Aliyu Abdulhameed Abbati as the most preferred aspirant among contenders seeking the All Progressives Congress (APC) ticket for the Adamawa Central Senatorial District ahead of the party primaries.
According to a report by the consortium which followed an eight-week field assessment across the senatorial zone, Abbati emerged with the highest favorability and acceptability ratings among party stakeholders and respondents sampled during the exercise.
The survey, coordinated by data analyst Dr. Suleiman Bashir, adopted a sample size of 6,500 respondents drawn from the seven local government areas of Adamawa Central Senatorial District.
Accordingly, the study utilized a combination of stratified sampling, cluster sampling, and simple random sampling techniques to ensure broad representation and minimize statistical bias.
To achieve demographic balance and political spread, respondents were selected across Hong, Gombi, Song, Yola South, Yola North, Fufore, and Girei local government areas. The sampling structure also reflected variations in age, gender, educational background, occupation, religious affiliation, and urban-rural distribution.
The questionnaire design focused on measurable political and leadership indicators considered critical in determining electoral viability within the APC.
Respondents were asked to evaluate aspirants based on legislative competence, grassroots connection, public trust, accessibility, party loyalty, leadership experience, empowerment capacity, and overall electability in the forthcoming general election.
To further validate the findings, the research team reportedly applied inferential statistical models, including Chi-square (χ²) testing with a 5 percent margin of error, to determine the significance and consistency of voter preferences across demographic categories.
Researchers involved in the study stated that the observed variations in candidate support were statistically significant and reflected clear patterns within the APC support base.
At the end of the survey and diligent assessment, Aliyu Abdulhameed Abbati emerged as the leading aspirant with 34 percent of the total weighted responses. He was followed by Amb. Hapsat Ibrahim Modibbo, who secured 20 percent, while Engr. Dr. Aishatu Aliyu Umar recorded 15 percent.
Umar B. Bindir polled 12 percent, Saidu Hayatu Galadima received 10 percent, while Sen. Abdulaziz Murtala Nyako recorded 9 percent of the total responses.
According to the analysis, Abbati’s lead was driven largely by his perceived accessibility, growing grassroots network, and strong acceptability among younger respondents and party mobilizers across the zone.
The report further observed that while other aspirants demonstrated strengths in specific local government areas or among particular demographic blocs, Abbati maintained relatively consistent performance across all sampled LGAs, indicating what researchers described as “broad-based political acceptability.”
Cross-tabulation of responses also suggested that respondents who prioritized grassroots engagement, party unity, and constituency outreach were more inclined toward Abbati’s candidacy. In contrast, some of the other contenders performed better among respondents who emphasized technocratic experience or political legacy.
Observers who reviewed the findings noted that the Adamawa Central APC contest remains highly competitive, with multiple influential figures still commanding significant support bases within the party structure.
They however maintained that Abbati’s numerical advantage in the survey reflects a growing momentum capable of shaping the dynamics of the party primaries if sustained ahead of the primaries.
Speaking on the methodology adopted in the exercise, research consultant Dr. Ibrahim Yusuf described the study as “a technically structured survey rooted in standard opinion polling frameworks.”
He stated that the deployment of layered sampling techniques, demographic balancing, and statistical validation tools enhanced the credibility and analytical depth of the outcome.
He added that as the 2027 electoral cycle approaches, data-driven assessments and opinion trend analyses would continue to influence campaign strategies, stakeholder alignments, and internal party calculations across Adamawa State.
