Why Tinubu’s Reforms, Despite Early Gains, Are Not Lifting Nigerians Out Of Poverty

By; MURTALA ADOGI MOHAMMED

When the World Bank released its October 8, 2025 report on Nigeria, it told two very different stories about one nation. On one hand, it highlighted early macroeconomic gains: growth is returning, the naira is stabilizing, reserves are rising, and public debt is falling. On the other hand, it revealed a painful truth — 136 million Nigerians, or 60 percent of the population, now live below the poverty line.

This paradox between progress and poverty has become the defining story of Nigeria’s current economic reform journey. The administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has made bold fiscal moves — removing fuel subsidies, floating the naira, and overhauling the tax system — but for most citizens, the question remains: When will these reforms begin to reflect in people’s lives?

1. The Early Gains on Paper

The World Bank report acknowledges that Nigeria’s economy is showing signs of stabilization and growth, driven by reforms such as subsidy removal, currency devaluation, and tax adjustments. The country’s GDP rose by 3.9 percent in the first half of 2025, foreign reserves have climbed above $42 billion, and the current account surplus now stands at 6.1 percent of GDP. For the first time in a decade, public debt has fallen to about 39.8 percent of GDP.

These are encouraging figures by any standard, signalling that the reforms have restored a measure of macroeconomic stability. However, while the numbers look impressive in Abuja, the reality in Nigerian markets and households tells a very different story. The statistics show promise, but the streets show pain.

2. The Gains Have Not Reached Households

Reforms have strengthened government finances but weakened household resilience. The removal of fuel subsidies and the liberalization of the foreign exchange market may have balanced fiscal books, but they also triggered inflationary shocks that hit the poorest Nigerians hardest. Food inflation remains above 34 percent, with basic items such as rice, maize, and yam now far beyond the reach of average families. Transportation and energy costs have doubled, while small businesses struggle with rising input costs and shrinking margins.

In essence, macroeconomic gains have not translated into microeconomic relief. The books may be balanced, but the kitchen tables remain empty.

3. States Have More Money, But Where Are the Results?

Since subsidy removal, allocations to states from the Federation Account (FAAC) have reached record highs — over ₦2 trillion monthly in some instances. In principle, this should lead to expanded investments in social programs, infrastructure, and job creation. Unfortunately, the evidence of such progress is scarce. Many states lack the basic instruments for accountability — delivery units, performance compacts, or poverty scorecards — to show how these increased funds are improving lives.

Across the country, wage arrears persist, capital projects remain stalled, and poverty indicators are barely moving. Revenues have risen, but results remain flat. Without a clear link between fiscal transfers and tangible social outcomes, Nigeria risks replacing centralized inefficiency with decentralized waste.

4. Reforms Came Before Safety Nets

Perhaps the most critical challenge is the sequence of implementation. The government’s fiscal corrections came long before any substantial social protection measures. The reforms were necessary, but the timing was brutal. Fuel and FX adjustments pushed costs up across every sector, yet social safety programs — including cash transfers, wage adjustments, and small-business funds — have been slow and inconsistent.

The ₦35,000 wage award for civil servants remains unevenly implemented across states, and the ₦75 billion MSME fund has reached only a small fraction of intended beneficiaries. By acting before cushioning, Nigeria effectively exposed millions to reform shocks without protection. The result is a widening gap between macro stability and human security.

5. The Missing Link: Delivery and Accountability

The missing ingredient in Nigeria’s reform agenda is delivery discipline. Reforms do not implement themselves; institutions do. Nigeria urgently needs a Results-Based Intergovernmental Financing Framework — one that links federal transfers and reform dividends to measurable state-level progress in reducing poverty and improving service delivery.

States that meet performance benchmarks in education, healthcare, and infrastructure should be rewarded, while those that fail must face fiscal scrutiny. Reform dividends should flow to results, not rhetoric. Until national growth is connected to household welfare, Nigeria will continue to record progress in statistics but not in people’s lives.

6. The Hard Questions

Two years into this administration, Nigerians are justified in asking: Is the strategy of pushing more money to states truly working to lift people out of poverty? Where is the credible evidence that these resources are being used to reduce hardship or expand opportunity? And must we continue with what is clearly not working?

These are not political questions; they are developmental ones. They demand evidence, transparency, and measurable results.

7. Reforms Must Change Lives

Economic reform is not an end in itself. It is a means to expand freedom, dignity, and opportunity. If reforms do not improve livelihoods, they risk losing public legitimacy. The government deserves credit for its courage and fiscal discipline, but now must shift from announcements to outcomes — from policies to proof.

Reforms should not only balance the books — they should change lives. Economic transformation must be felt in households, not just seen in headlines.

Murtala Adogi Mohammed, PhD

Futurist | Governance Strategist | Policy Extrapreneur

Founder & CEO, System Strategy & Policy Lab (SSPL)

mamurtala@gmail.com